Authors

Jun Yao, Yixin Tang, Jiatong Yao

Research Question

How will climate change-driven displacement and extreme weather events impact voter participation and demographics, influencing future election outcomes and equitable voting processes in the United States?

Background

Climate change will dramatically impact where people live and vote, reshaping electoral landscapes and access to voting across the U.S. As seen with Hurricane Helene, major storms can destroy polling locations and voting infrastructure, impact mail services, cause loss of identification papers, and displace voters. This project analyzes climate hazard and displacement data alongside voter demographics to identify potential shifts in voter demographics and access/participation due to extreme weather disruptions. By mapping these intersections, the project equips policymakers and planners with actionable insights to maintain equitable democratic processes, and ensure access to voting in a changing climate.

This capstone project explores:

• How slow-onset climate hazards and severe weather events are impacting voter access and participation, with case studies of recent disruptions due to major storms, heat waves, or wildfires.
• A baseline understanding of how many districts, accounting for how many voters, are in high climate risk areas; this will be accompanied by a data visualization and map.
• How climate-induced migration will reshape the political composition of districts, impacting future election outcomes.
• Measures that localities can put into place to ensure voting access as weather becomes more unpredictable and severe, and provide recommendations for emergency voter plans.
• Navigating the long term impacts to majority-minority districts under the Civil Rights Act.

Students analyze publicly available datasets, perform spatial mapping of climate hazards and voter demographics, and conduct literature reviews on climate displacement and voting patterns. By integrating climate models, migration trends, and election data, the project generates hypotheses and identify regions where voter demographics may shift due to climate pressures.

Deliverables will inform local governments and election boards on maintaining voting access as climate risks escalate and will contribute to Rebuild by Design's work to prepare communities for climate-driven changes in voting districts.

Methodology

Project steps include:

• Conducting literature reviews on climate migration and election impacts.
• Performing spatial analysis using GIS, linking climate hazard layers to voter data.
• Analyzing trends in voter participation during past climate disruptions.
• Developing maps, data visualizations, and scenario models to project future impacts, using tools such as Python, R, QGIS/ArcGIS, and Tableau for analysis and visualization.

Deliverables

• Students are applying urban data science methods to analyze how climate risk and displacement intersect with voter participation, exploring how climate change may reshape democratic processes. They are synthesizing insights into a deliverable of their choosing — such as an interactive map, data analysis report, policy brief, or prototype tool — that communicates findings to policymakers and communities.

Data Sources

• Climate hazard layers (sea-level rise, heat, flood risk, wildfire risk) from open datasets (NOAA, FEMA, Climate Impact Lab)
• Voter registration and turnout data (open or state datasets)
• Census and ACS demographic data for migration analysis
• Additional datasets may be provided by partners of Rebuild by Design to enhance geographic and policy context.