Authors

Weilai Xu, Zihao Yin

Research Question

How can Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) be optimized to mitigate urban heat in NYC’s most vulnerable communities while balancing cost-effectiveness and long-term sustainability?

Background

NYC faces intensifying heat risks due to climate change and urbanization, disproportionately affecting certain communities. While Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) such as green roofs, urban tree canopies, and reflective materials are widely acknowledged for their potential to mitigate heat, their spatial effectiveness, long-term sustainability, and cost-benefit trade-offs remain underexplored. This project aims to develop a data-driven decision support tool to assess community heat vulnerability and optimize NBS selection.

Methodology

A heat vulnerability analysis identifies heat-vulnerable communities using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and multimodal assessment techniques that incorporate climate, socioeconomic, and demographic indicators. For exposure modeling, the study integrates both static and dynamic heat exposure metrics, including population density and mobility patterns, to better capture real-world human exposure to extreme heat events. The NBS effectiveness simulation applies urban climate models like Target and Urban Tethys-Chloris to simulate the cooling impacts of various NBS strategies at detailed spatial scales. Finally, a cost-benefit optimization approach develops a comprehensive cost function that considers factors such as energy savings, installation and maintenance costs, and long-term NBS effectiveness, helping policymakers make informed decisions regarding the most effective heat mitigation strategies.

Deliverables

• Comprehensive, Evidence-Based Framework for urban planners to implement effective, community-specific heat mitigation strategies
• Technical Report outlining methodology, findings, and policy recommendations

Datasets