Authors

Jie Liu, Jiani Lyu, Zili Su, Yike Sun

Research Question

Does the Congestion Surcharge Policy effectively reduce ride-hailing demand in NYC?

Background

The Central Business District Tolling Program, also known as congestion pricing, was implemented on January 5, 2025. It charges a toll to vehicles entering the Congestion Relief Zone, which includes local streets and avenues below 60th Street. NYC TLC taxis, green cabs, and black cars are charged $0.75 per trip within, to, or from the zone, with the fee paid by the customer. For NYC TLC high-volume and for-hire vehicles, the fee increases to $1.50 per trip. Additionally, passenger vehicles with an E-ZPass must pay $9 during peak hours and $2.25 during off-peak hours. In 2019, a congestion surcharge was applied below 96th Street in Manhattan, requiring taxis to pay $2.50 per trip and for-hire vehicles $2.75 per trip.

Methodology

This project explores future congestion pricing structures for TLC-regulated services. The research involved analyzing data, identifying congestion patterns, and developing pricing models to assess industry impacts. The project will culminate in policy recommendations based on data analysis and predictive models, addressing TLC’s initiatives like the green rides and wheelchair accessible vehicles programs. The analysis process begins with calculating speed and then applying a Difference-in-Differences (DID) model to assess the impact. Next, a Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) is employed to refine the analysis. A new machine learning model is then introduced to improve predictive accuracy. Finally, policy analysis and evaluations are used to assess the effectiveness and potential implications of various pricing structures.

Deliverables

• Data Visualization Dashboard
• Technical Report